Agriculture Cabinet Secretary Mutahi Kagwe has warned that Kenya is at a “critical crossroads” as drought, widening rice supply gaps and rising prices push the country closer to a looming food crisis.
In a statement highlighting growing pressure on the food system, Kagwe said Kenya is “edging closer to a food crisis as drought disrupts production, rice supply gaps widen, and prices begin to wobble.”
He noted that rice has increasingly become a key staple for both urban households and communities in arid and semi-arid lands (ASALs), making the situation more urgent.
“With rice now a key staple in urban and ASAL households, falling domestic output and erratic rainfall are already fuelling volatility and threatening a broader food inflation wave that could hit maize and other essentials,” Kagwe warned.
According to the Agriculture Cabinet Secretary, Kenya currently produces less than 20 percent of the rice it consumes, leaving the country heavily dependent on imports.
By early 2026, the rice deficit is projected to exceed 380,000 metric tonnes, while demand between January and June alone is estimated at 750,000 metric tonnes. “Local stocks cannot fill this gap,” he said.
The impact of the supply shortfall is already being felt most sharply in vulnerable regions. Kagwe cautioned that acute food insecurity in ASAL counties could surge from 1.8 million to 3.5 million people if timely interventions are not implemented.
He described the situation as one where climate stress risks tipping into a full-blown hunger crisis.
Against this backdrop, the High Court is set to rule on a legal challenge to the government’s decision to allow time-bound, duty-free rice imports aimed at stabilising supply and cushioning consumers from rising prices. The ruling, expected on January 29, 2026, could have far-reaching implications.
“The ruling will carry real consequences for food prices, household budgets, and the constitutional right to food,” Kagwe said, adding that delays could worsen the crisis at a time when swift action is needed.
The government maintains that temporary duty-free imports are a necessary measure to stabilise the market, protect consumers from sharp price increases and avert a deeper food emergency as drought conditions persist across key agricultural regions.
